Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
